Monday, 22 August 2016

What matters most is not what you invest in...

What matters most is not what invest in, but when and what price.

There is no such thing as a good or bad investment idea per se. For example, the selection of good companies is certainly not enough to assure good results -- see Xerox, Avon, Merck and the rest of the "nifty fifty" in 1974.

Any investments can be good or bad depending on when it's made and what price is paid. It's been said that "any bond can be triple-A at a price"

There is no security that is so good that it can't be overpriced, or so bad that it can't be under priced.

Howard Marks, 1994.


Monday, 15 August 2016

Disconnect yourself - That's what's rare and valuable these days

I realized that all the best, happiest, and most productive times in my life, were when I was completely cut-off.

Read on the full article here 

Buffet on Thinking...

"I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in american business. I read and think. So i do more reading and thinking, and make less impulse decisions than most people in business."

Thursday, 11 August 2016

Managing your own portfolio - Arthur Zeikel

Personal portfolio management is not a competitive sport. It is, instead, an important individualized effort to achieve some predetermined financial goal by balancing one’s risk-tolerance level with the desire to enhance capital wealth. Good investments management practices are complex and time consuming, requiring discipline, patience and consistency of application. Too many investors fail to follow some simple, time-tested tenets that improve the odds of achieving success and, at the same time, reduce the anxiety naturally associated with an uncertain undertaking.

I hope the following advice will help:

A fool and his money are soon parted. Investment capital becomes a perishable commodity if not handled properly. Be serious. Pay attention to your financial affairs. Take an active, intensive interest. If you don’t, why should anyone else?

There is no free lunch. Risk and return are interrelated. Set reasonable objectives using history as a guide. All returns relate to inflation. Better to be safe than sorry. Never up, never in. most investors underestimate the stress of a high-risk portfolio on the way down.

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify. Asset allocation determines the rate of return. Stock beats bonds over time.

Never overreach of yield. Remember, leverage works both ways. More money has been lost searching for yield than at the point of a gun (Ray DeVoe).

Spend interest, never principle, if at all possible, take out less than comes in. then a portfolio grows in value and lasts forever. The other way around, it can be diminished quite rapidly.

You cannot eat relative performance. Measure results on a total return, portfolio basis against your own objectives, not someone else’s.

Don’t be afraid to take a loss. Mistakes are part of the game. The cost price of a security is a matter of historical insignificance, of interest only to the IRS. Averaging down, which is different from dollar cost averaging, means the first decision was a mistake. It is a technique used to avoid admitting a mistake or to recover a loss against the odds. When in doubt, get out. The first loss is not only the best bus is also usually the smallest.

Watch out for fads. Hula hoops and bowling alleys (among others) didn’t last. There are no permanent shortages (or oversupplies). Every trend creates its own countervailing force. Expect the unexpected.

Make decisions. No amount of information can remove all uncertainties. Have confidence in your moves. Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.

Take the long view. Don’t panic under short-term transitory developments. Stick to your plan. Prevent emotion from overtaking reason. Market timing generally doesn’t work. Recognize the rhythm of events.

Remember the value of common sense. No system works all of the time. History is a guide, not a template.


This is all you need to know.

Wednesday, 10 August 2016

Is it possible to overcome an aversion to loss?




"I like to win, but more than anything, I can't stand the idea of losing. Because to me, losing means death."

Most of us don't like losing. In fact, it's what the academics call loss aversion. We feel the pain of loss more acutely than we feel the pleasure of gain. In other words, we may like to win, but we hate to lose.

The loss aversion was first convincingly demonstrated by Amos Tvresky and Daniel Kahneman. In prospect theory, loss aversion refers to the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are as much as twice as psychologically powerful as gains.

Under this state of mind, we may make stupid decisions, especially on personal finance. Can we realize this and overcome this? Changing perspective, could be one of the solution.

Read on this article from nytimes...



Monday, 8 August 2016

Are yearly market fluctuations important for long-term investor?

I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two, since i don't have the faintest idea.

I think you can be quiet sure that over the next ten years, there are going to be a few years when the general market is plus 20% or 25% a few when it is minus on the same order, and a majority when it is in between. I haven't any notion as to the sequence in which these will occur, nor do i think it is of any great importance for the long-term investor. if you will take the first table on page 3 and shuffle the years around, the compounded result will stay the same. If the next four years are going to involve, say, a +40%, -30%, +10% and -6%, the order in which they fall is completely unimportant for our purposes as long as we all are around at the end of the four years.

- Warren Buffet, 1962 Partnership letter

Sunday, 7 August 2016

50 Things I Pretend To Know Now That I Am Nearing 50

Every day I realize more how stupid I am. It’s OK to be stupid. But when I was 18 I thought I was a genius. Now I realize I’m an idiot. Read on ...

What matters most is not what you invest in...

What matters most is not what invest in, but when and what price. There is no such thing as a good or bad investment idea per se. For exa...