Monday, 22 August 2016

What matters most is not what you invest in...

What matters most is not what invest in, but when and what price.

There is no such thing as a good or bad investment idea per se. For example, the selection of good companies is certainly not enough to assure good results -- see Xerox, Avon, Merck and the rest of the "nifty fifty" in 1974.

Any investments can be good or bad depending on when it's made and what price is paid. It's been said that "any bond can be triple-A at a price"

There is no security that is so good that it can't be overpriced, or so bad that it can't be under priced.

Howard Marks, 1994.


Monday, 15 August 2016

Disconnect yourself - That's what's rare and valuable these days

I realized that all the best, happiest, and most productive times in my life, were when I was completely cut-off.

Read on the full article here 

Buffet on Thinking...

"I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in american business. I read and think. So i do more reading and thinking, and make less impulse decisions than most people in business."

Thursday, 11 August 2016

Managing your own portfolio - Arthur Zeikel

Personal portfolio management is not a competitive sport. It is, instead, an important individualized effort to achieve some predetermined financial goal by balancing one’s risk-tolerance level with the desire to enhance capital wealth. Good investments management practices are complex and time consuming, requiring discipline, patience and consistency of application. Too many investors fail to follow some simple, time-tested tenets that improve the odds of achieving success and, at the same time, reduce the anxiety naturally associated with an uncertain undertaking.

I hope the following advice will help:

A fool and his money are soon parted. Investment capital becomes a perishable commodity if not handled properly. Be serious. Pay attention to your financial affairs. Take an active, intensive interest. If you don’t, why should anyone else?

There is no free lunch. Risk and return are interrelated. Set reasonable objectives using history as a guide. All returns relate to inflation. Better to be safe than sorry. Never up, never in. most investors underestimate the stress of a high-risk portfolio on the way down.

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify. Asset allocation determines the rate of return. Stock beats bonds over time.

Never overreach of yield. Remember, leverage works both ways. More money has been lost searching for yield than at the point of a gun (Ray DeVoe).

Spend interest, never principle, if at all possible, take out less than comes in. then a portfolio grows in value and lasts forever. The other way around, it can be diminished quite rapidly.

You cannot eat relative performance. Measure results on a total return, portfolio basis against your own objectives, not someone else’s.

Don’t be afraid to take a loss. Mistakes are part of the game. The cost price of a security is a matter of historical insignificance, of interest only to the IRS. Averaging down, which is different from dollar cost averaging, means the first decision was a mistake. It is a technique used to avoid admitting a mistake or to recover a loss against the odds. When in doubt, get out. The first loss is not only the best bus is also usually the smallest.

Watch out for fads. Hula hoops and bowling alleys (among others) didn’t last. There are no permanent shortages (or oversupplies). Every trend creates its own countervailing force. Expect the unexpected.

Make decisions. No amount of information can remove all uncertainties. Have confidence in your moves. Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.

Take the long view. Don’t panic under short-term transitory developments. Stick to your plan. Prevent emotion from overtaking reason. Market timing generally doesn’t work. Recognize the rhythm of events.

Remember the value of common sense. No system works all of the time. History is a guide, not a template.


This is all you need to know.

Wednesday, 10 August 2016

Is it possible to overcome an aversion to loss?




"I like to win, but more than anything, I can't stand the idea of losing. Because to me, losing means death."

Most of us don't like losing. In fact, it's what the academics call loss aversion. We feel the pain of loss more acutely than we feel the pleasure of gain. In other words, we may like to win, but we hate to lose.

The loss aversion was first convincingly demonstrated by Amos Tvresky and Daniel Kahneman. In prospect theory, loss aversion refers to the tendency for people to strongly prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are as much as twice as psychologically powerful as gains.

Under this state of mind, we may make stupid decisions, especially on personal finance. Can we realize this and overcome this? Changing perspective, could be one of the solution.

Read on this article from nytimes...



Monday, 8 August 2016

Are yearly market fluctuations important for long-term investor?

I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two, since i don't have the faintest idea.

I think you can be quiet sure that over the next ten years, there are going to be a few years when the general market is plus 20% or 25% a few when it is minus on the same order, and a majority when it is in between. I haven't any notion as to the sequence in which these will occur, nor do i think it is of any great importance for the long-term investor. if you will take the first table on page 3 and shuffle the years around, the compounded result will stay the same. If the next four years are going to involve, say, a +40%, -30%, +10% and -6%, the order in which they fall is completely unimportant for our purposes as long as we all are around at the end of the four years.

- Warren Buffet, 1962 Partnership letter

Sunday, 7 August 2016

50 Things I Pretend To Know Now That I Am Nearing 50

Every day I realize more how stupid I am. It’s OK to be stupid. But when I was 18 I thought I was a genius. Now I realize I’m an idiot. Read on ...

Saturday, 6 August 2016

Vijay Kedia's Advice


  • Create a fixed income like salary
  • Be informative and read a lot
  • Don't trade and don't leverage
  • Invest only for 5 to 10 years (Long term)
  • Invest with good management and let management manage the money
  • Don't count your profit till sell your stock
  • Periodically pull money from market
  • Don't be sad in bear market
  • Luck also play a role

Thursday, 4 August 2016

Which is statistically the best bet?




A horse carrying a light weight with a wonderful win rate a good post position etc., etc. is way more likely to win than a horse with a terrible record and extra weight and so on and so on. But if you look at the odds , the bad horse pays 100 to 1, whereas the good horse pays 3 to 2. Then it's not clear which is statistically the best bet using the mathematics of Fermat and Pascal. The prices have changed in such a way that it's very hard to beat the system.

- Charlie Munger

Wednesday, 3 August 2016

Most men would rather die than think and many do

The most common cause of low prices is pessimism, some times pervasive, some time specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like prices it produces. It's optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.

None of this means, however, that a business or stock is an intelligent purchase simply because it is unpopular, a contrarian approach is just as foolish as a follow-the-crowd strategy. What's required is thinking rather than polling. Unfortunately, Bertrand Russell's observation about life in general applies with unusual force in the financial world: "Most men would rather die than think and many do".

- Buffet's 1990 letter to shareholders

Tuesday, 2 August 2016

Price alone shouldn't decide your investment

Value in relation to price, not price alone, must determine your investment decisions.

If you look to Mr.Market as a creator of investment opportunities (where price departs from underlying value), you have the makings of a value investor.

If you insist on looking to Mr.Market for investment guidance, however, you are probably best advised to hire someone else to manage your money.

Because security prices can change for any number of reasons (even without any reasons) and because it is impossible to know what expectations are reflected in any given price level, investors must look beyond security prices to underlying business value, always comparing the two as part of the investment process.

- Seth Klarman

Monday, 1 August 2016

Buffet's Investment Process

First, you need two piles. You have to segregate businesses you can understand and reasonably predict from those you don't understand and can't reasonably predict. An example is chewing gum versus software. You also have to recognize what you can and cannot know. Put everything you can't understand or that is difficult to predict in one pile. That is the too-hard pile. Once you know the other pile, then it's important to read a lot, learn about the industries, get background information, etc. on the companies in those piles. Read a lot of 10Ks and Qs, etc. Read about the competitors. I don't want to know the price of the stock prior to my analysis. I want to do the work and estimate a value for the stock and then compare that to the current offering price. If I know the price in advance it may influence my analysis. We're getting ready to make a $5 billion investment and this was the process I used.

What matters most is not what you invest in...

What matters most is not what invest in, but when and what price. There is no such thing as a good or bad investment idea per se. For exa...